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Theory Seminar

This semester the theory seminar will be held on Wednesdays 12:00 - 1:30 PM, and is being co-organized by Andisheh Ghasemi and John Wilkins. Write to John with suggestions for speakers!

Fall Semester, 2024

October 2
12:00 PM
East Village 102
Mingda Qiao
Truthfulness of Calibration Measures
Abstract
Abstract: In sequential calibration, a forecaster makes probabilistic predictions on a sequence of T adversarially chosen binary outcomes. The predictions are called perfectly calibrated if, among the steps on which each value p in [0, 1] is predicted, exactly a p fraction of the outcomes are ones. Since perfectly calibrated forecasts are often unachievable, calibration measures have been introduced to quantify the deviation from perfect calibration.
We initiate the study of the truthfulness of calibration measures. A calibration measure is said to be truthful if the forecaster (approximately) minimizes the expected penalty by predicting the conditional expectation of the next outcome, given the prior distribution of outcomes. Our main contribution is the introduction of a new calibration measure, termed the Subsampled Smooth Calibration Error (SSCE), under which truthful prediction is optimal up to a constant factor. In contrast, all the existing calibration measures are far from being truthful: there are simple distributions on which a polylogarithmic (or even zero) penalty is achievable, while truthful prediction leads to a polynomial penalty.
Based on joint works with Nika Haghtalab, Kunhe Yang, Eric Zhao, and Letian Zheng. Papers available at https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.07458, https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.13979.

Speaker Bio: Mingda Qiao is a postdoc at MIT, and an incoming assistant professor at UMass Amherst (starting Fall'25). His research focuses on the theory of prediction, learning, and decision-making in sequential settings, as well as collaborative federated learning. Prior to MIT, Mingda was a FODSI postdoc at UC Berkeley, received his PhD in Computer Science from Stanford University, and received his BEng in Computer Science from Tsinghua University.

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